Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
11 0x11c6…a66c politics 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$399 (-0%) realized −$399 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%16W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,006per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$22
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$62
other 36% −$258
sports 8% −$90
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -10.5% -19.0% 11% 5% -10.5%
all 95 -2.8% -12.1% 17% 11% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 11% -9.9%
10% -20.5% 11% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 11% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,230) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$14 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$675
Realized−$399
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses16 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage106d
Avg bet$1,006
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $675 $675 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $272 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3,601 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,112 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $2,611 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,564 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,655 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,038 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 04 $304 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 04 $389 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $350 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,288 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,073 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,705 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2,036 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,556 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,184 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,112 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $2,381 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,878 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $4,199 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,185 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,251 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $1,004 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $2,919 −$3 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $77 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $2,386 −$3 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1,963 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $859 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $272 5m
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $272 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $675 20h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $778 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $778 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,075 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,077 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $989 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $990 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,047 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,048 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $922 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $924 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,137 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,139 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $965 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $966 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,062 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,063 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,038 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $375 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $376 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $523 17d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $524 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $508 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $509 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $350 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $674.60 · official $674.60 (match) · 331 history records