Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11c5…70e3 sports 871 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (163 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$644 (+10%) realized +$665 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate65%552W / 297L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day163.1pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$70
14 days−$194
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$45
other 12% −$52
crypto 0% −$10
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (163 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -30.0% -36.7% 46% 35% -39.8%
≤30d 849 -3.1% -12.3% 65% 45% -10.8%
≤90d 849 -3.1% -12.3% 65% 45% -10.8%
all 849 -3.1% -12.3% 65% 45% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 45% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 33% -19.4%
15% -28.4% 24% -27.2%
20% -35.4% 17% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$665
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses552 / 297
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions23
Markets (closed)849 / 871
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day163.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 849 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+69%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 58¢ 51¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 92¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Norway 99¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 91¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $8 $2 −$5 (-69%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 82¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 45¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 81¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 74¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 51¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 78¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +134%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 +$9 +45%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $8 +$6 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$10 -84%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$1 -42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +134%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $2 1h
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Norway 99¢ $3 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 62¢ $2 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 2h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $4 10h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1 10h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 58¢ $2 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $6 10h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $3 10h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $7 10h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 58¢ $7 10h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $3 10h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 73¢ $1 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $2 27h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $1 27h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 68¢ $12 27h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 34¢ $1 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 27h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 69¢ $8 28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 28h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1 30h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 30h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $3 30h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 84¢ $1 30h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 30h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $3 30h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $1 30h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.06 · official $58.06 (match) · 3500 history records