Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11c5…79d8 other 218 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$300 (+3%) realized +$269 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate30%112W / 261L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$335
7 days−$1,387
14 days−$1,529
30 days−$1,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$882
crypto 14% −$114
sports 6% +$168
world 3% +$105
weather 2% +$32
politics 0% +$26
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -95.3% -95.7% 2% 1% -75.2%
≤30d 259 -62.3% -65.9% 17% 12% -21.9%
≤90d 373 -33.4% -39.8% 30% 22% -17.3%
all 373 -33.4% -39.8% 30% 22% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 22% -17.3%
10% -45.5% 16% -25.2%
15% -50.8% 13% -32.4%
20% -55.6% 9% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized+$269
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses112 / 261
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)373 / 218
History coverage42d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 70¢ 56¢ $227 $182 −$45 (-20%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 10¢ 60¢ $22 $133 +$110 (+495%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 10¢ 30¢ $22 $68 +$46 (+205%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $22 $9 −$13 (-60%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 202 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 +$1 +1007%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 +$1 +808%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -380%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -301%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -380%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -380%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -341%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1760-1839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 +452%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $224 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $224 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $101 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $122 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 13h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $54 21h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 5d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.06 · official $392.09 (match) · 653 history records