Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:50:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
11 0x11be…7712 sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,088 (-13%) realized −$3,976 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$515per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$323est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$4,688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,444
7 days+$1,786
14 days+$1,786
30 days+$1,459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$5,071
other 28% +$3,715
world 11% −$2,086
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +49.0% +34.8% 32% 32% -0.0%
≤30d 23 +42.5% +29.0% 30% 30% -2.7%
≤90d 45 +20.8% +9.3% 31% 31% -17.0%
all 50 +13.2% +2.4% 32% 30% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 30% -23.0%
10% -7.4% 28% -30.4%
15% -16.4% 26% -37.1%
20% -24.6% 24% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$740) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$662 vs −$409 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$4,688
Realized−$3,976
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions9
Markets (closed)50 / 61
History coverage135d
Avg bet$515
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 57¢ $2,000 $2,054 +$54 (+3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $2,000 $1,884 −$116 (-6%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $172 $189 +$17 (+10%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $178 $145 −$33 (-19%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $95 −$92 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,505 +$991 +40%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,401 −$1,401 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $199 +$328 +165%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,823 +$1,331 +73%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $57 −$56 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $34 −$33 -97%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $859 +$617 +72%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $167 −$164 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $206 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $92 +$2,381 +2600%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $182 −$177 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $499 −$30 -6%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$98 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $794 −$786 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $466 −$461 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $740 +$520 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $450 +$290 +64%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $997 −$973 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $336 −$328 -98%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 03 $359 −$351 -98%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Apr 29 $416 −$407 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1,225 −$1,200 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 28 $505 −$495 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $150 −$146 -97%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Apr 20 $499 −$486 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $665 −$650 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $491 +$1,165 +238%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $8 +$52 +648%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $93 −$91 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $1,000 +$794 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $450 +$386 +86%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 09 $400 +$817 +204%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 04 $500 −$489 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $138 −$138 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 04 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Apr 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $315 −$17 -6%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $133 +$45 +34%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 04 $1,000 +$762 +76%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 16 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 16 $1,106 +$98 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $176 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $2,026 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $43 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 86¢ $3,496 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 57¢ $506 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 62¢ $1,998 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $297 11h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 17h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 17h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 17h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $2,034 17h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $183 17h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $1,401 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $526 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $3,155 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $199 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran BUY 2¢ $51 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 26h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $1,823 26h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 3¢ $34 26h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $1,476 26h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 56¢ $22 27h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 56¢ $1 27h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 56¢ $56 27h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 56¢ $8 27h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 56¢ $6 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,688.00 · official $4,978.41 · 143 history records