Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
11 0x11b3…d58c other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$65 (+6%) realized +$66 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%24W / 17L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$73
14 days+$67
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$62
crypto 6% +$7
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +7.7% -2.5% 62% 59% -2.8%
≤30d 41 +2.5% -7.3% 59% 56% -3.4%
≤90d 41 +2.5% -7.3% 59% 56% -3.4%
all 41 +2.5% -7.3% 59% 56% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 56% -3.4%
10% -16.2% 44% -12.6%
15% -24.3% 37% -21.1%
20% -31.7% 29% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 55
History coverage7d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 39¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$65 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $142 +$39 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $70 +$17 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$19 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $65 +$10 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +55%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $2 +$7 +363%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$6 +153%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $59 +$2 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 +$17 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +64%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +109%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 5¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 22¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 14¢ $2 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 3¢ $2 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $142 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 20¢ $5 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $70 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 1¢ $1 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 7¢ $2 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 32h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $99 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $78 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $65 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 BUY 21¢ $2 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.35 · official $104.22 · 97 history records