Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
11 0x11b3…0756 politics 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$7
politics 43% −$158
sports 6% +$2
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -1.8% -11.1% 4% 3% -10.3%
all 113 +3.7% -6.2% 6% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 5% -10.4%
10% -15.2% 5% -19.0%
15% -23.4% 5% -26.8%
20% -30.9% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$2 · ×5.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 106
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage115d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $292 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $131 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $314 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $146 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $149 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $164 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $123 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $127 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $145 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $170 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $285 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $150 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $260 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $149 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $306 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $217 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $126 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $263 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $142 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $122 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $162 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $154 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $127 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $172 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $158 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $142 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $161 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $163 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $143 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $128 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $147 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $164 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $143 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $151 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $128 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 15h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 15h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 32h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 44h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 16d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $131 21d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $131 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $135 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $135 26d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $146 26d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $146 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $126 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $126 28d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $164 29d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $164 29d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $123 29d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 29d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $127 30d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $127 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 321 history records