Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
11 0x11b0…6a8e crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$616 (+8%) realized +$616 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 30L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$221
14 days−$221
30 days+$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$414
economics 23% +$726
world 17% −$124
crypto 15% +$172
sports 10% +$222
finance 2% −$9
politics 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -48.6% -53.5% 33% 27% -16.6%
≤30d 35 +34.4% +21.6% 43% 40% -2.8%
≤90d 35 +34.4% +21.6% 43% 40% -2.8%
all 52 +11.6% +1.0% 42% 38% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 38% +0.8%
10% -8.7% 35% -8.8%
15% -17.5% 31% -17.6%
20% -25.6% 29% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$83 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$616
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage169d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $807 −$10 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $198 +$102 +52%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $71 −$51 -72%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $505 +$220 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $201 +$52 +26%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 27 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 27 $32 +$96 +302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 27 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 26 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 26 $21 +$96 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 26 $41 +$30 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 26 $21 +$62 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 26 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 25 $31 +$63 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 25 $125 +$229 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 25 $21 +$40 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 25 $32 +$130 +410%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 25 $21 +$84 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 25 $32 +$135 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 25 $225 −$220 -98%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 10 $25 −$25 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first? Feb 05 $410 −$410 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $700 +$150 +21%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $1,222 +$1,186 +97%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 28 $100 +$54 +54%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 27 $40 −$40 -99%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 26 $290 −$290 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 26 $240 +$35 +14%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 26 $120 +$10 +8%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 7PM ET Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 17 $600 −$460 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 74¢ $302 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $391 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $504 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $198 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 41h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 41h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $71 42h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 81¢ $8 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 50¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 100¢ $505 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 69¢ $505 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $21 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $102 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $32 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $32 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $41 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records