Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:57:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11b0…fe15 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$159 (-10%) realized −$205 · open +$46
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27
14 days+$55
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$16
sports 21% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.1% -0.4% 67% 33% -17.4%
≤30d 19 -3.6% -12.8% 58% 42% -20.2%
≤90d 23 -2.7% -12.0% 57% 43% -20.0%
all 23 -2.7% -12.0% 57% 43% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 43% -20.0%
10% -20.4% 43% -27.7%
15% -28.1% 39% -34.7%
20% -35.2% 22% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$38 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized−$205
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)23 / 28
History coverage46d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 50¢ 100¢ $100 $200 +$100 (+100%)
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Yes 19¢ 18¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-8%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 43¢ 17¢ $86 $34 −$52 (-60%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 21¢ 78¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+274%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 21¢ 74¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+250%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $89 +$7 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +39%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $220 −$37 -17%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $162 +$53 +33%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 10 $39 +$29 +72%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $175 −$173 -99%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $118 −$2 -1%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $48 +$40 +84%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 01 $64 +$26 +42%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 30 $198 −$19 -10%
Andorra leading at halftime? May 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Nicaragua leading at halftime? May 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 27 $24 $0 +0%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 27 $8 +$1 +9%
Paulo Dybala: Anytime Goalscorer May 25 $19 +$10 +54%
Jeremy Doku: Anytime Goalscorer May 24 $57 +$24 +42%
Danny Welbeck: Anytime Goalscorer May 24 $27 +$20 +77%
Vedat Muriqi: Anytime Goalscorer May 23 $64 −$64 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Richarlison: Anytime Goalscorer May 11 $7 +$3 +47%
Andre Silva: Anytime Goalscorer May 09 $5 +$3 +61%
Borja Iglesias: Anytime Goalscorer May 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $6 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 43¢ $87 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $39 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 78¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 78¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 78¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 78¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 78¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $33 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $4 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $4 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $4 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $11 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $4 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $3 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 72¢ $89 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 65¢ $4 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 64¢ $4 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 64¢ $13 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 64¢ $16 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 66¢ $22 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 66¢ $17 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 68¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.82 · official $281.82 · 125 history records