Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x11b0…88af crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$243 (+1%) realized +$242 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%40W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$77
14 days+$84
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$73
economics 26% +$67
other 9% −$1
finance 8% +$18
tech 8% +$78
politics 6% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.4% -2.9% 100% 0% -2.9%
≤30d 4 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤90d 7 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
all 43 +0.9% -8.7% 93% 2% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -8.5%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.2 per $1 lost it wins $10.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$1,115
Realized+$242
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses40 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage246d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $605 $606 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $510 $510 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 21 $1,038 +$77 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $163 +$6 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $507 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 06 $1,318 +$30 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 26 $654 +$3 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $1,330 +$26 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 31 $1,193 +$4 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 25 $1,190 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 21? Mar 21 $1,187 +$4 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 20? Mar 20 $809 +$8 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 20? Mar 20 $368 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22? Mar 19 $365 +$3 +1%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 16 $374 −$8 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? Mar 13 $371 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,500 on March 8? Mar 09 $370 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 7? Mar 08 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on March 7? Mar 08 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 5? Mar 04 $369 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $368 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $385 −$17 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $383 +$2 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 03 $383 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 9-15? Feb 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 11? Feb 13 $416 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Feb 10 $416 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on February 9? Feb 10 $415 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on February 9? Feb 08 $388 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.10 on February 9? Feb 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $413 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 6? Feb 04 $412 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on February 4 Feb 03 $412 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $409 +$2 +1%
Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jan 25 $405 +$4 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $402 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $389 +$13 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 06 $334 +$55 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? Nov 14 $333 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 3-9? Nov 08 $332 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $290 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Nov 02 $328 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $250 on October 22? Oct 28 $328 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $510 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $605 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $995 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $119 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $1,038 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $154 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $191 12d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $678 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $317 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $507 36d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $503 39d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $163 46d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $166 46d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $1,318 50d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $657 58d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $661 58d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $654 69d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 99¢ $654 69d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $1,238 78d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $40 84d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $1,197 85d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $406 89d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $787 89d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $1,194 90d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,190 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 21? SELL No 100¢ $1,159 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 21? SELL No 100¢ $31 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 21? SELL No 100¢ $0 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,115.23 · official $1,115.23 (match) · 113 history records