Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

11 0x11ab…4f65 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$1,445 (-72%) realized −$1,398 · open −$47

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip

Net edge-77%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate12%4W / 28L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day7.3pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-76.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	32	-74.0%	-76.5%	12%	12%	-82.2%
≤30d	32	-74.0%	-76.5%	12%	12%	-82.2%
≤90d	32	-74.0%	-76.5%	12%	12%	-82.2%
all	32	-74.0%	-76.5%	12%	12%	-82.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-76.5%	12%	-82.2%
10%	-78.7%	12%	-83.9%
15%	-80.8%	9%	-85.5%
20%	-82.7%	6%	-86.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -80% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -74% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -56% → late -92% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$56 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.06 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$103

Realized−$1,398

Unrealized−$47

Win rate (resolved)12%

Wins / losses4 / 28

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions2

Markets (closed)32 / 34

History coverage6d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day7.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 32 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5	Over	62¢	44¢	$100	$71	−$29 (-29%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa?	Yes	6¢	4¢	$50	$32	−$18 (-36%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$132	+$41	+31%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$71	−$70	-99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?	Jun 15	$102	−$102	-100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco?	Jun 15	$16	−$16	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$102	−$102	-100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	Jun 15	$103	−$103	-100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?	Jun 15	$103	−$103	-100%
Spread: Japan (-2.5)	Jun 15	$26	−$26	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan?	Jun 15	$46	−$46	-100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?	Jun 15	$103	−$103	-100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$103	−$76	-74%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$103	−$92	-90%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$25	−$25	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$71	−$70	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$124	−$122	-98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$21	+$9	+44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$31	+$41	+134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$10	+$8	+76%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 14	$46	−$39	-84%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5	Jun 13	$33	−$32	-98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5	Jun 13	$25	−$1	-6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$102	−$100	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5	BUY Over	62¢	$51	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5	BUY Over	61¢	$51	1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	42¢	$31	21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$71	21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$51	21h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	22h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	46h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	46h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	SELL Yes	2¢	$27	2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	SELL Yes	2¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	3d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	20¢	$41	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$25	3d
Spread: Japan (-2.5)	BUY Japan	3¢	$26	3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan?	BUY Yes	1¢	$15	3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	4¢	$46	3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5	BUY Under	34¢	$71	3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	47¢	$124	3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	6¢	$14	3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	7¢	$16	3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.41 · official $103.41 (match) · 68 history records