Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x11a9…2bdd crypto 627 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,217 (-6%) realized −$1,217 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%298W / 329L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day76.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,791
7 days−$1,748
14 days−$1,658
30 days−$1,492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$2,437
sports 3% −$16
other 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -39.6% -45.3% 29% 25% -39.5%
≤30d 406 -14.7% -22.8% 49% 41% -18.9%
≤90d 627 -16.8% -24.7% 48% 41% -20.7%
all 627 -16.8% -24.7% 48% 41% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 41% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 32% -28.2%
15% -38.5% 23% -35.2%
20% -44.5% 15% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses298 / 329
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)627 / 627
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day76.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 627 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $184 −$54 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$15 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$14 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$19 +30%
Prostejov: Maxim Mrva vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$5 -13%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $115 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $80 +$4 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$25 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$22 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $84 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$23 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$27 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $130 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $152 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records