Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

11 0x11a8…3a61 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$129 (+29%) realized +$101 · open +$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip

Net edge+27%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$64per market

Trades / day6.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+31.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+45.7%	+31.8%	100%	100%	+31.8%
≤30d	2	+45.7%	+31.8%	100%	100%	+31.8%
≤90d	2	+45.7%	+31.8%	100%	100%	+31.8%
all	2	+45.7%	+31.8%	100%	100%	+31.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.8%	100%	+31.8%
10%	+19.2%	100%	+19.2%
15%	+7.7%	100%	+7.7%
20%	-2.9%	0%	-2.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$63 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$198

Realized+$101

Unrealized+$28

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)2 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$64

Trades / day6.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Under	62¢	88¢	$50	$71	+$21 (+41%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	77¢	90¢	$60	$71	+$11 (+18%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	57¢	$34	$35	+$0 (+1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$16	$15	−$0 (-2%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Yes	55¢	40¢	$10	$7	−$3 (-27%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$46	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$177	+$81	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	55¢	$10	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	62¢	$51	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$60	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$16	20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$35	20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$177	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.36 · official $198.86 (match) · 9 history records