Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
11 0x11a6…4421 sports 47 markets active 2d ago coverage 571d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$177 (-3%) realized −$177 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%9W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$9
other 26% −$4
sports 9% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +4.3% -5.6% 5% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 19 +4.3% -5.6% 5% 5% -9.6%
all 47 -12.4% -20.8% 19% 19% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 19% -12.0%
10% -28.4% 19% -20.4%
15% -35.3% 19% -28.1%
20% -41.6% 17% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

571d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage571d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $300 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $310 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $220 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $220 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $250 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $300 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $300 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $310 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $180 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $240 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $440 −$1 -0%
Blues vs. Maple Leafs Jun 09 $8 +$7 +85%
Houston vs. UCF Nov 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Lightning vs. Golden Knights Nov 07 $14 +$16 +113%
Red Wings vs. Ducks Nov 03 $8 +$7 +89%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Lions vs. Chiefs Oct 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Brewers vs. Padres Sep 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 22 $2 +$3 +127%
Nationals vs. Marlins Sep 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Red Sox vs. Orioles Aug 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Falcons vs. Cowboys Aug 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Pirates vs. Brewers Aug 20 $31 +$15 +49%
Astros vs. Yankees Aug 12 $17 +$15 +89%
Will Victoria Livschitz win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Champions Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Jul 30 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $4 $0 -2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $4 $0 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $4 $0 -0%
Will Teodor Nițulescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. 76ers Feb 05 $104 −$104 -100%
Magic vs. Warriors Feb 04 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Feb 03 $105 +$101 +96%
Hawks vs. Bulls Nov 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Nov 22 $23 +$23 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $240 41h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $300 41h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $310 41h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $310 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $240 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $300 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $409 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $410 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $250 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $300 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $300 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $250 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $300 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $300 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $150 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $300 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $409 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $410 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $150 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $300 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $180 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $310 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $370 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $370 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $180 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $310 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records