Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x11a2…0532 other 505 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate70%352W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$154
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$99
sports 21% +$185
world 2% +$207
politics 2% −$149
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +13.4% +2.6% 66% 62% -12.4%
≤30d 38 +16.3% +5.2% 68% 66% -9.3%
≤90d 226 -0.0% -9.6% 60% 60% -13.0%
all 505 +1.5% -8.2% 70% 59% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 59% -9.2%
10% -17.0% 42% -17.9%
15% -25.0% 30% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$59 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses352 / 153
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions0
Markets (closed)505 / 505
History coverage143d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 505 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $172 +$102 +59%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit Jun 21 $50 +$4 +8%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $83 +$87 +104%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $50 +$33 +66%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,030 −$1,030 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$6 +122%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $37 +$49 +133%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $538 +$487 +90%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $296 +$242 +82%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $437 −$136 -31%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $25 +$12 +48%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $283 +$141 +50%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $202 +$106 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $126 +$75 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $60 +$40 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$25 +42%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $107 −$107 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-08? Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $76 +$45 +60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $121 +$82 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$3 -5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$25 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $321 −$270 -84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$22 +43%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $121 +$79 +65%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $86 +$34 +40%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $153 −$67 -44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $104 +$50 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $73 +$29 +40%
Will FK Dinamo Makhachkala win on 2026-05-10? Jun 11 $106 +$43 +40%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $101 +$51 +50%
Will Mantova 1911 win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $99 +$22 +22%
Will FK Polissia win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $99 +$26 +27%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $99 +$51 +52%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-29? May 08 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 08 $110 −$110 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-08? May 08 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-02? May 08 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11? May 08 $95 +$31 +32%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-03? May 08 $110 +$19 +17%
Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2026-05-03? May 08 $110 +$28 +26%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-03? May 08 $112 +$69 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 89¢ $274 14m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit SELL Giles Hussey 75¢ $53 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit SELL Giles Hussey 75¢ $0 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit BUY Giles Hussey 69¢ $50 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 55¢ $172 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $0 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $83 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $24 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $19 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $51 17h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $181 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $191 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $216 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $268 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $4 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $168 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $8 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 39h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 41h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $268 41h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $269 42h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 45h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $293 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $300 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $437 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1479 history records