Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x119f…a4be other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%23W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$28
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$17
other 30% −$26
sports 21% −$7
world 5% −$5
crypto 4% −$6
finance 3% −$4
tech 3% −$2
culture 2% −$3
economics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 64 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 115 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 136 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses23 / 113
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage104d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 92¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $157 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi Jun 20 $45 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? Jun 20 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $74 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $160 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $159 −$3 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $159 −$2 -2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $146 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $260 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $95 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $69 −$2 -3%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $110 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $74 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $47 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $87 −$1 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 07 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $23 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $264 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $126 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $98 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $223 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $38 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $48 2h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $48 9h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $61 10h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $61 14h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 14h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 22h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 23h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 27h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 28h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 36h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 36h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 42h
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi SELL No 97¢ $45 43h
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $52 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $54 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $58 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $59 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $55 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $55 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $19 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $20 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 4d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.85 · official $37.85 (match) · 523 history records