Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x119c…2d4a other 33 markets active 2d ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$581 (-55%) realized −$420 · open −$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$137
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$318
other 34% −$259
economics 26% −$160
sports 1% +$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +101.6% +82.4% 17% 17% +75.9%
≤30d 15 +61.2% +45.9% 13% 13% -24.3%
≤90d 19 +27.3% +15.2% 11% 11% -63.1%
all 19 +27.3% +15.2% 11% 11% -63.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 11% -63.1%
10% +4.2% 11% -66.6%
15% -5.9% 11% -69.9%
20% -15.1% 11% -72.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +142% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$39 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$420
Unrealized−$161
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)19 / 33
History coverage88d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $30 −$30 (-50%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $100 $28 −$72 (-72%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$165 +1604%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$92 +614%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $70 −$67 -96%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $235 −$235 -100%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 42h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 42h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 42h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 42h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 42h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 42h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 42h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 42h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 42h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 42h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 42h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 42h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 47h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $31 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $42 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $31 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $31 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $31 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $105 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $103 8d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $70 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.95 · official $188.95 (match) · 43 history records