Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
11 0x119b…ac3e sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17,312 (+18%) realized +$19,352 · open −$2,040
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$7,038per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$871est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$13,960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$21,943
sports 47% −$3,020
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.4% +6.2% 67% 67% +13.6%
≤30d 12 +17.4% +6.2% 67% 67% +13.6%
≤90d 12 +17.4% +6.2% 67% 67% +13.6%
all 12 +17.4% +6.2% 67% 67% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.2% 67% +13.6%
10% ← realistic here -3.9% 67% +2.8%
15% -13.2% 58% -7.2%
20% -21.7% 58% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4,929 vs −$4,618 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$13,960
Realized+$19,352
Unrealized−$2,040
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$871
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7,038
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10,000 $10,960 +$960 (+10%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $6,000 $3,000 −$3,000 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10,129 +$2,879 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10,111 +$5,272 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10,156 +$7,854 +77%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $5,064 +$3,707 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12,133 +$6,914 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,095 −$2,470 -60%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $4,086 +$5,980 +146%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10,141 −$10,000 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5,061 +$3,413 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,061 +$3,413 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,070 −$5,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6,131 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $7,690 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $15,383 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $10,111 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $4,525 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $793 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5,064 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5,064 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 87¢ $18,010 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10,156 23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 57¢ $5,064 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $12,133 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1,025 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 9¢ $1,624 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $10,067 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $4,095 32h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4,086 32h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $10,141 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5,061 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10,266 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5,070 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5,061 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,960.20 · official $14,182.43 · 28 history records