Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
11 0x1199…efe7 crypto 665 markets active 13h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$186 (-4%) realized −$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%363W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$30
14 days−$102
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$363
other 0% $0
world 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -7.0% -15.9% 56% 52% -11.7%
≤30d 357 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 50% -16.1%
≤90d 663 -9.1% -17.7% 55% 50% -17.0%
all 663 -9.1% -17.7% 55% 50% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 50% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 39% -25.0%
15% -32.8% 27% -32.2%
20% -39.4% 19% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses363 / 300
Open positions2
Markets (closed)663 / 665
History coverage84d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 663 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 229 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$24 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$9 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$10 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$19 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.71 · official $16.10 (match) · 1942 history records