Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1199…171e other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$68 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate66%156W / 80L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,127per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$89
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$83
other 10% −$73
weather 8% +$33
sports 8% −$18
economics 4% +$18
world 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$8
tech 0% −$3
finance 0% −$35
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.6% -8.1% 36% 4% -9.8%
≤30d 36 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 72 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 8% -9.6%
all 236 -1.3% -10.7% 66% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 9% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses156 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage614d
Avg bet$1,127
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 74¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? Jun 17 $6 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +10%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $17 $0 -2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $4,131 −$17 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $3,371 −$2 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $990 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $981 −$1 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,452 −$17 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $309 −$9 -3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,271 −$1 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $907 −$4 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4,917 −$16 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 10 $2,565 −$15 -1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 10 $2,287 −$14 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,527 −$14 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,236 −$3 -0%
ITF Deauville: Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi vs Raphael Perot Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud Jun 09 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 22? Jun 09 $12 $0 +1%
Cervia: Max Alcala Gurri vs Juan Martin Jun 09 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 30? May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on May 1? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 30? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Apr 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs FC Famalicão Esports (BO3) - Journey Apr 30 $3 $0 +12%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti Apr 30 $6 $0 +1%
Dubrovnik: Anhelina Kalinina vs Lucia Bronzetti Apr 30 $6 +$1 +14%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition Apr 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in March 2026? Mar 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 11 be less Mar 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $9 −$1 -6%
Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30? Mar 24 $7 $0 -2%
Bill Gates charged by June 30? Mar 24 $6 $0 -1%
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30? Mar 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will ESPN Tournament Challenge be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Stor Mar 24 $4 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? Mar 24 $4 −$2 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? SELL No 87¢ $6 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $12 1h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 1h
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $17 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $18 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $526 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3,369 9h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3,371 44h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $824 2d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 2d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $66 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $54 2d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $980 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $59 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $1,681 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $49 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.51 · official $9.51 (match) · 821 history records