Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:07:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1199…0fad politics 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 292d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%11W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 24% −$4
other 23% −$1
politics 20% $0
crypto 10% $0
sports 8% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -2.1% -11.4% 29% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 14 -2.1% -11.4% 29% 0% -10.6%
all 58 -0.4% -9.9% 19% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

292d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses11 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage292d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $65 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $38 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 22 $5 $0 -3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $4 $0 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 12 $1 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 12 $4 $0 +5%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Sep 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $31 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $22 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $8 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $23 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $31 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $31 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.56 · official $30.56 (match) · 180 history records