Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:16:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1199…d5f9 other 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,146 (-13%) realized −$1,299 · open −$847
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%44W / 132L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$653now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$261
14 days−$857
30 days−$849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$837
politics 25% −$1,211
world 9% −$75
tech 5% −$652
culture 4% +$551
crypto 2% −$21
economics 0% +$23
sports 0% −$56
weather 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -59.0% -62.9% 0% 0% -34.7%
≤30d 42 -44.7% -50.0% 19% 17% -47.4%
≤90d 56 -26.0% -33.1% 21% 14% -38.3%
all 176 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 20% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 20% -20.5%
10% -17.4% 18% -28.1%
15% -25.4% 15% -35.0%
20% -32.7% 13% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +27% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$25 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$653
Realized−$1,299
Unrealized−$847
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses44 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)176 / 179
History coverage407d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $164 $237 +$73 (+45%)
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,126 $216 −$910 (-81%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $210 $200 −$10 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 19 $10 −$8 -77%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 19 $39 −$27 -69%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $27 −$18 -66%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 17 $861 −$208 -24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $31 −$24 -78%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $37 −$36 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $387 −$376 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $46 −$43 -93%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 11 $64 +$4 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $62 −$11 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 11 $66 −$4 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -23%
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Jun 10 $11 −$3 -31%
Another Canada election called by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -50%
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? Jun 08 $52 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$15 +273%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 08 $0 $0 -96%
Will Starmer say "Apologize" during the next Prime Minister's Question Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$18 +88%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $0 $0 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $13 −$13 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 06 $10 −$9 -95%
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? Apr 23 $0 +$5 +1107%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Apr 21 $344 +$1 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison? Apr 21 $132 −$4 -3%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Apr 21 $94 −$56 -59%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison? Apr 21 $86 −$75 -87%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison? Apr 21 $75 −$26 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $110 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $114 1h
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $114 1h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $37 2h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $2 20h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $2 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $652.78 · official $652.78 (match) · 2608 history records