trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 20 | -38.1% | -44.0% | 50% | 30% | -2.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -44.0% | 30% | -2.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -49.4% | 20% | -11.4% |
| 15% | -54.3% | 5% | -19.9% |
| 20% | -58.8% | 5% | -27.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | $6,954 | $7,161 | +$208 (+3%) |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? | Yes | 45¢ | 1¢ | $98 | $2 | −$96 (-98%) |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Yes | 19¢ | 1¢ | $28 | $1 | −$27 (-96%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $49 | −$48 | -98% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Mar 14 | $215 | −$215 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Feb 28 | $509 | −$509 | -100% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? | Dec 21 | $13,058 | +$1,189 | +9% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22? | Dec 21 | $10,142 | +$1,159 | +11% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18? | Dec 21 | $29,553 | +$3,437 | +12% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? | Dec 16 | $30,664 | −$30,650 | -100% |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? | Dec 16 | $5,000 | −$3,716 | -74% |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? | Dec 11 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? | Dec 09 | $846 | −$411 | -48% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Nov 18 | $71,427 | +$21,927 | +31% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? | Nov 18 | $48,003 | +$25,146 | +52% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? | Nov 11 | $9,000 | +$62 | +1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $614 | +$45 | +7% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 3? | Oct 23 | $250 | +$66 | +26% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on July 4? | Jul 04 | $130 | −$130 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Jul 01 | $430 | −$30 | -7% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on June 30? | Jun 30 | $258 | +$71 | +28% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? | Jun 30 | $147 | +$10 | +7% |
| US military action against Iran before July? | Jun 22 | $698 | −$691 | -99% |