Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x118f…9fc0 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 22% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.6%
all 39 +0.0% -9.5% 31% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage270d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $18 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Nov 29 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $6 $0 -1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $15 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $13 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $28 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $28 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $14 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.40 · official $30.40 (match) · 104 history records