Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

11 0x118e…d80e crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized +$103 · open −$136

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate30%7W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$141per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$1,752now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$27

7 days+$27

14 days+$27

30 days+$27

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-41.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+3.6%	-6.3%	100%	0%	-6.3%
≤30d	1	+3.6%	-6.3%	100%	0%	-6.3%
≤90d	1	+3.6%	-6.3%	100%	0%	-6.3%
all	23	-35.1%	-41.3%	30%	22%	-16.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-41.3%	22%	-16.5%
10%	-46.9%	22%	-24.5%
15%	-52.0%	22%	-31.8%
20%	-56.7%	22%	-38.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 64% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

29% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -35% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -57% → late -15% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.53 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage

Net worth$1,752

Realized+$103

Unrealized−$136

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses7 / 16

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage167d

Avg bet$141

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1,140	$1,026	−$114 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$748	$726	−$22 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$738	+$27	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Feb 10	$18	−$17	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Feb 10	$19	−$19	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Feb 10	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Feb 10	$16	−$3	-22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Feb 10	$12	+$11	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Feb 10	$20	−$20	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2PM ET	Jan 18	$46	−$46	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1PM ET	Jan 18	$19	+$27	+148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12PM ET	Jan 18	$9	+$9	+96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7PM ET	Jan 18	$5	+$5	+96%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	Jan 15	$10	−$10	-100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?	Jan 15	$10	−$10	-100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	Jan 15	$4	−$4	-100%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?	Jan 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Counter-Strike: SkinRave vs Phoenix (BO3)	Jan 10	$6	−$6	-100%
Counter-Strike: regain vs Marsborne (BO3)	Jan 10	$6	−$2	-43%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs BOSS (BO3)	Jan 10	$5	−$5	-100%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs ChickenBurger (BO3)	Jan 10	$8	+$5	+64%
Counter-Strike: 777 vs FUT Academy (BO3)	Jan 10	$8	−$8	-100%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs BIG Academy (BO3)	Jan 08	$8	−$3	-37%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3)	Jan 08	$7	−$1	-12%
Counter-Strike: megoshort vs XI Esport (BO3)	Jan 08	$5	$0	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$764	1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$765	4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$738	5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$100	7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$15	7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$10	7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$600	10h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1,781	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$18	134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$19	134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$20	134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$6	134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$1	134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$7	134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$10	134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$46	156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$46	156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$19	156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$19	156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$9	156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$5	157d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	160d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	160d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	49¢	$4	160d
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?	BUY Yes	32¢	$5	160d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	160d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,751.61 · official $1,751.61 (match) · 54 history records