Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x118e…7c47 sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 80% −$14
politics 13% −$7
other 3% −$15
sports 2% −$11
crypto 2% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 +12.0% +1.3% 36% 14% -5.3%
≤90d 40 -16.4% -24.4% 22% 12% -14.8%
all 57 -9.5% -18.1% 26% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 12% -9.8%
10% -26.0% 12% -18.4%
15% -33.1% 11% -26.3%
20% -39.7% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage591d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $8 +$6 +79%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $90 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 18 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Apr 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 06 $21 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 06 $22 +$11 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Mar 27 $29 +$32 +108%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Utah Valley Wolverines Mar 23 $30 +$35 +116%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $22 +$20 +89%
Warriors vs. Wizards Mar 17 $31 +$11 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 05 $79 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $79 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 25 $13,530 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $13 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $9 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 11d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 21d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 21d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 21d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 25d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 25d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $8 26d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 29d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 29d
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $6 32d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 36d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 36d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.85 · official $30.85 (match) · 239 history records