Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x118d…7959 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$328 (-10%) realized −$328 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$432
7 days−$432
14 days−$776
30 days−$865
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$865
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -36.4% -42.5% 43% 29% -35.5%
≤30d 28 -32.0% -38.5% 32% 29% -40.7%
≤90d 28 -32.0% -38.5% 32% 29% -40.7%
all 28 -32.0% -38.5% 32% 29% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 29% -40.7%
10% -44.4% 21% -46.4%
15% -49.8% 18% -51.6%
20% -54.7% 14% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$72 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage19d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $356 +$28 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $311 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $833 −$400 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $312 +$46 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $230 +$95 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $219 −$100 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $165 −$155 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $153 −$145 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $102 −$46 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $48 +$267 +553%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $67 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$15 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $105 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $276 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $327 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $192 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $324 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records