Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
11 0x118c…3fff sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,924 (+23%) realized +$15,512 · open +$412
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%29W / 16L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$1,427per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$798est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,420
7 days+$4,060
14 days+$11,809
30 days+$15,509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$14,587
other 10% +$1,335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +24.3% +12.5% 75% 75% +31.6%
≤30d 45 +29.8% +17.5% 64% 64% +11.2%
≤90d 45 +29.8% +17.5% 64% 64% +11.2%
all 45 +29.8% +17.5% 64% 64% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.5% 64% +11.2%
10% ← realistic here +6.2% 64% +0.6%
15% -4.0% 58% -9.1%
20% -13.4% 49% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$2,360) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +47% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,127 vs −$1,074 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2,431
Realized+$15,512
Unrealized+$412
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses29 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$798
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1,427
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 100¢ $889 $1,433 +$544 (+61%)
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B OG 70¢ 64¢ $701 $641 −$60 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $429 $358 −$72 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $785 +$429 +55%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $4,490 +$3,287 +73%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,322 −$1,295 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $2,360 +$1,640 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,547 +$2,273 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $778 +$809 +104%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $12 +$19 +156%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4,728 +$1,219 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $3,393 −$3,335 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,799 +$3,741 +98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,715 +$1,605 +59%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $690 −$677 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6,591 −$6,547 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4,780 +$1,366 +29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,533 +$967 +27%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 13 $134 +$116 +86%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $571 −$562 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,784 −$1,760 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,018 +$401 +39%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $260 −$260 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 12 $401 +$739 +185%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,560 +$1,280 +50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 12 $1,049 +$1,201 +114%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,017 +$1,833 +180%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 12 $44 −$13 -29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3,510 +$2,020 +58%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 11 $2,208 +$1,313 +60%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $628 −$622 -99%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5) Jun 09 $15 +$10 +70%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $56 +$47 +85%
Games Total: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $19 +$39 +203%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) Jun 08 $220 −$216 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,509 −$1,509 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $460 +$761 +165%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GamerLegion (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 07 $498 +$422 +85%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $677 +$934 +138%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 07 $4 +$10 +233%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs FlyQuest (+3.5) Jun 07 $45 +$105 +231%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 07 $256 −$256 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,350 +$956 +41%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,826 +$3,145 +172%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 07 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $899 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $437 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 70¢ $556 2h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 70¢ $150 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $785 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,322 45h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $4,490 47h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will S BUY $103 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $2,360 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4,547 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $778 9d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $12 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $4,728 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $3,393 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $966 10d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $7 10d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 64¢ $1,701 10d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $33 10d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $134 10d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $1,376 10d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $97 10d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $102 10d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $2,098 10d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $679 10d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $1 10d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $1 10d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $3 10d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $6 10d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,430.70 · official $2,440.71 (match) · 323 history records