Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
11 0x118b…fcb4 world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$478per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$18
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$29
other 16% +$10
sports 16% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.7%
all 6 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage15d
Avg bet$478
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 29 $494 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 29 $494 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 22 $482 −$28 -6%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Jun 21 $472 +$10 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $468 +$45 +10%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 14 $461 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $494 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $494 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL No 95¢ $494 2h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY No 95¢ $494 3h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $454 7d
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $482 7d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL No 95¢ $482 8d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY No 93¢ $472 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $468 15d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $460 15d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $461 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records