Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1189…14c0 crypto 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,781 (-20%) realized −$1,845 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate61%70W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$300
7 days−$339
14 days−$549
30 days−$1,035
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$846
other 10% −$304
sports 7% −$368
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.4% -1.9% 20% 20% -64.2%
≤30d 14 -50.1% -54.8% 14% 14% -75.7%
≤90d 115 -11.8% -20.2% 61% 49% -29.1%
all 115 -11.8% -20.2% 61% 49% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 49% -29.1%
10% -27.9% 37% -35.9%
15% -34.8% 27% -42.1%
20% -41.2% 14% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$80 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$324
Realized−$1,845
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses70 / 45
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)115 / 118
History coverage53d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 78¢ $100 $165 +$65 (+65%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$181 +442%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $121 −$119 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $304 −$238 -78%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $188 −$184 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $96 +$54 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 03 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 03 $103 +$86 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 03 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 03 $201 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 03 $102 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 02 $79 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 02 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 02 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 02 $203 −$94 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 02 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 02 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 30 $101 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 30 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 30 $103 −$63 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 30 $102 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 30 $62 +$31 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 30 $41 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 30 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 30 $207 −$23 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 30 $103 +$80 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 30 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 30 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 30 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 30 $103 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 30 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 30 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 30 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 30 $104 +$109 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 30 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 30 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 30 $102 +$25 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 8d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $61 19d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 41¢ $61 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $61 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 24¢ $102 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $85 22d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 23d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $96 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.82 · official $323.82 (match) · 261 history records