Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1182…e843 crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8 (-10%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +138% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +115% what you keep after slip
Net edge+115%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+115.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +37.1% +24.0% 50% 50% -39.8%
≤30d 6 +37.1% +24.0% 50% 50% -39.8%
≤90d 9 +137.8% +115.2% 44% 44% -44.1%
all 9 +137.8% +115.2% 44% 44% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +115.2% 44% -44.1%
10% +94.6% 44% -49.4%
15% +75.8% 44% -54.3%
20% +58.5% 44% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +138% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage69d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$10 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$14 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 18 $0 +$5 +1218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records