Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
11 0x1182…5373 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1
politics 39% −$2
world 7% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage173d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $122 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $122 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $122 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $122 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $124 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 15 $124 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $249 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $249 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $249 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $249 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $249 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 06 $237 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 04 $245 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $239 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $242 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $122 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $122 15h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $122 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $122 22d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $122 31d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $122 32d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $122 38d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $122 38d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $122 41d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $123 41d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $124 62d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $124 63d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $124 65d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $124 65d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $249 79d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $249 80d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $249 89d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $249 90d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $249 94d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $249 95d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $249 97d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 98d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $141 98d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $249 100d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $249 101d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $249 132d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $249 139d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 140d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $244 163d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $236 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records