Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1180…4795 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$54 (+10%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +26.8% +14.7% 38% 31% -21.9%
≤30d 13 +26.8% +14.7% 38% 31% -21.9%
≤90d 13 +26.8% +14.7% 38% 31% -21.9%
all 13 +26.8% +14.7% 38% 31% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.7% 31% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here +3.7% 23% -29.3%
15% -6.3% 23% -36.2%
20% -15.5% 23% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +81% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$48 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $66 −$65 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$60 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$53 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$98 +310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$152 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.88 · official $5.88 (match) · 42 history records