Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x117b…f017 sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$289 (-26%) realized −$285 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%31W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$341
other 12% −$3
crypto 7% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 46% -34.7%
≤30d 68 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 46% -34.7%
≤90d 68 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 46% -34.7%
all 68 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 46% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 46% -34.7%
10% -22.5% 44% -40.9%
15% -30.0% 44% -46.7%
20% -36.9% 41% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$285
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 37
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)68 / 72
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 52¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? No 45¢ 44¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 40¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-26? No 49¢ 22¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $28 +$23 +79%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 25 $16 +$10 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $40 +$22 +55%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 24? Jun 24 $41 +$33 +79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina Jun 24 $15 −$1 -3%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $41 +$46 +114%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $37 −$37 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $31 +$5 +17%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $33 +$27 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $35 +$36 +101%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $37 −$37 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $22 +$44 +197%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber Jun 23 $5 +$3 +55%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mai Hontama vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mona Barthel vs Lin Zhu Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +55%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +62%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 23 $5 +$3 +67%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $5 +$4 +76%
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $5 +$5 +97%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $5 +$2 +44%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $5 +$2 +40%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +60%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 49¢ $7 55m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $28 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 55¢ $28 1h
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 45¢ $7 7h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $7 14h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $7 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 57¢ $32 45h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $33 46h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $32 47h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $32 47h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 49¢ $32 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Emma Navarro 60¢ $8 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $40 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $41 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 38¢ $41 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $41 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? BUY No 61¢ $16 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 51¢ $15 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 24? BUY No 54¢ $41 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 49¢ $23 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $31 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 60¢ $35 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 85¢ $31 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $35 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $33 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $37 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 59¢ $37 2d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 54¢ $33 2d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 48¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.12 · official $24.19 (match) · 140 history records