Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x117b…3dd0 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+5%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% $0
other 19% +$36
politics 6% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 28 +64.0% +48.4% 50% 4% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +48.4% 4% -6.9%
10% +34.2% 4% -15.8%
15% +21.2% 4% -23.9%
20% +9.4% 4% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +128% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×5.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.1 per $1 lost it wins $8.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage444d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $18 +$1 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $42 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $43 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Jun 02 $1 +$38 +4067%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $3 $0 -11%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 01 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 01 $19 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 01 $19 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend? Mar 31 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $46 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $46 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $46 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $31 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $44 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $45 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $1 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $10 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $11 7d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 71¢ $43 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $43 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $40 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.39 · official $46.94 (match) · 97 history records