Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

11 0x1177…e01c crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$26 (-15%) realized −$23 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate41%7W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$32

7 days+$32

14 days+$38

30 days+$25

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-30.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+9.8%	-0.7%	67%	67%	+64.6%
≤30d	6	+8.3%	-2.0%	67%	67%	+19.0%
≤90d	13	-29.5%	-36.2%	38%	38%	-2.6%
all	17	-22.7%	-30.0%	41%	35%	-5.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.0%	35%	-5.6%
10%	-36.7%	24%	-14.7%
15%	-42.8%	18%	-22.9%
20%	-48.4%	18%	-30.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -49% → late +1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.15 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized−$23

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses7 / 10

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage124d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	30¢	12¢	$5	$2	−$3 (-58%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$32	+$31	+95%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+34%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci	Jun 08	$27	+$4	+16%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	Jun 07	$7	+$2	+29%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo	May 30	$13	−$13	-98%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea	Apr 14	$2	−$2	-100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw	Apr 06	$10	+$16	+155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Mar 28	$6	−$6	-100%
Will the Rachida Dati List win the most citywide list votes in the run	Mar 28	$6	−$6	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Mar 28	$10	−$10	-100%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th	Mar 22	$4	−$4	-97%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th	Mar 22	$5	−$5	-91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Feb 13	$7	−$1	-10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Feb 13	$16	+$1	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Feb 13	$5	+$1	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Feb 13	$18	−$3	-17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$63	1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$32	2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	35¢	$7	25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	26h
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci	SELL Mattia Bellucci	97¢	$32	9d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci	BUY Mattia Bellucci	83¢	$27	9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	BUY Flavio Cobolli	23¢	$2	10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	SELL Flavio Cobolli	40¢	$9	10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	BUY Flavio Cobolli	22¢	$5	10d
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo	BUY Moise Kouame	23¢	$13	18d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	46d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw	SELL Yes	98¢	$26	72d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	73d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	73d
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	87d
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th	BUY Yes	11¢	$4	87d
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	87d
Will the Rachida Dati List win the most citywide list votes in the run	BUY Yes	25¢	$6	89d
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$6	123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$6	123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$7	123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$10	123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$17	123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$16	123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$6	123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$5	123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$13	123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$5	123d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.08 · official $2.08 (match) · 38 history records