Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
11 0x1175…b8cf sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$67 (+6%) realized +$69 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +104% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +84% what you keep after slip
Net edge+84%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate84%16W / 3L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$44
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$25
world 4% +$82
tech 3% $0
culture 2% +$3
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+84.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -19.5% -27.2% 50% 50% -38.4%
≤90d 15 +130.6% +108.7% 80% 67% -3.5%
all 19 +103.6% +84.2% 84% 53% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +84.2% 53% -3.7%
10% +66.6% 37% -13.0%
15% +50.5% 32% -21.4%
20% +35.7% 16% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +104% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +204% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$99 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses16 / 3
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage178d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Iraq 66¢ 64¢ $89 $87 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $96 +$44 +46%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $142 −$139 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $87 +$66 +76%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $111 −$109 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 19 $110 +$71 +65%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 14 $106 +$44 +42%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 14 $11 +$2 +17%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 14 $35 +$17 +48%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 14 $64 +$13 +20%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $64 +$19 +29%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? May 09 $4 +$79 +1900%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 29 $49 −$49 -99%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31? Feb 04 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Apple reach $360 in January? Feb 04 $19 $0 +0%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jan 06 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $90 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $96 10d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ $142 14d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 56¢ $87 22d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 28¢ $111 29d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $110 38d
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY LNG Esports 70¢ $106 43d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $64 48d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 68¢ $49 58d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 67¢ $35 62d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 83¢ $64 70d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $13 98d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru BUY No 100¢ $13 108d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 85¢ $11 115d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 86¢ $20 118d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes $4 133d
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31? BUY No 93¢ $17 154d
Will Apple reach $360 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 162d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $13 171d
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $9 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.15 · official $87.15 (match) · 36 history records