Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
11 0x1173…eb6e crypto 515 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,164 (-7%) realized −$1,163 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%305W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day67.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$366
7 days−$443
14 days−$482
30 days−$998
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$883
sports 2% −$119
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -36.9% -42.9% 34% 31% -38.7%
≤30d 405 -19.0% -26.7% 51% 38% -18.6%
≤90d 571 -7.0% -15.8% 53% 41% -16.9%
all 571 -7.0% -15.8% 53% 41% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 41% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 24% -24.9%
15% -31.2% 18% -32.1%
20% -38.0% 13% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$1,163
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses305 / 266
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)571 / 515
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day67.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 54¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 85¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? No 75¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 6? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +538%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1? Jun 16 $0 +$33 +50474%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 26? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30? Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on April 27? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 12? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 27? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 29? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 20? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 19? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 15? Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on April 26? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
FDA approves Sanofi’s Subcutaneous Sarclisa? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 April 27-May 3? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 14 to April Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 30? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 19? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 26? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 27? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 13? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 18? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 19? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.69 · official $67.90 (match) · 3500 history records