Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
11 0x1171…98dc sports 96 markets active 21h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$78,892 (+33%) realized +$78,892 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 57L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$2,511per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$2,749est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32,035
7 days+$55,584
14 days+$83,027
30 days+$82,988
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$15,201
other 27% +$63,903
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +45.3% +31.5% 60% 60% +62.9%
≤30d 43 +41.4% +27.9% 42% 42% +39.3%
≤90d 96 +19.5% +8.2% 41% 40% +19.9%
all 96 +19.5% +8.2% 41% 40% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.2% 40% +19.9%
10% -2.2% 40% +8.4%
15% ← realistic here -11.6% 39% -2.1%
20% -20.3% 38% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$2,844) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,337 vs −$1,580 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$78,892
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$2,749
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage82d
Avg bet$2,511
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $17,364 +$32,876 +189%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $854 −$841 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,283 +$3,067 +134%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,138 +$2,022 +178%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $2,613 −$2,612 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $10,044 −$9,918 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $11,588 +$10,391 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,543 +$6,007 +170%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $2,103 −$2,103 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $18,027 +$16,694 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,282 −$1,282 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $4,899 −$4,899 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $7,128 +$4,122 +58%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6,055 −$6,055 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7,222 +$6,438 +89%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5,920 +$10,080 +170%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,641 −$1,641 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $4,121 +$7,078 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,597 +$5,040 +194%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $20,498 +$8,753 +43%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $4,899 −$4,829 -99%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $2,803 +$2,280 +81%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $24 −$23 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $213 −$213 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $586 −$586 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $960 −$957 -100%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $2,768 +$4,243 +153%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 02 $68 −$14 -20%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $692 +$1,357 +196%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $928 −$928 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $1,242 +$975 +79%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $1,740 −$1,740 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 May 30 $1,239 +$1,398 +113%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 May 29 $2,132 −$2,132 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 May 29 $7 −$7 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $38 +$1,772 +4662%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $76 −$76 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $212 −$212 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $251 −$251 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 28 $76 −$76 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 May 26 $12 +$19 +158%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 May 26 $1,212 +$1,518 +125%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 May 25 $786 +$670 +85%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $7,334 +$14,263 +194%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,028 −$1,027 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 24 $2,402 −$2,402 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $3,761 −$3,761 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $598 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $2 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $26 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $37 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $3 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $4 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $52 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $5 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $26 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $5 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $4 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $2 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $66 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $2 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $12 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $25 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $5 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $3 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $5 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1816 history records