Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
11 0x116f…4b5a world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$1
other 34% +$2
politics 5% $0
crypto 5% +$1
sports 2% $0
weather 2% +$1
finance 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 +3.8% -6.1% 21% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 14 +3.8% -6.1% 21% 7% -9.1%
all 38 +53.5% +38.9% 50% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.9% 5% -8.9%
10% +25.6% 5% -17.6%
15% +13.4% 5% -25.6%
20% +2.3% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +109% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.98 per $1 lost it wins $11.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage477d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $89 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $3 +$2 +51%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $2 +$3 +159%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 21 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 11–18? Apr 17 $1 $0 -42%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 16 $16 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 14 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Apr 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $17 $0 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 26 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February Mar 21 $16 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $39 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $43 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $43 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $42 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $33 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $43 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $43 39h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $33 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $39 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $16 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $23 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $12 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $12 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $40 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $40 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $7 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $32 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $40 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.97 (match) · 122 history records