Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
11 0x116e…1ab3 crypto 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$721 (+9%) realized +$780 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%74W / 122L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$127
14 days−$825
30 days+$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$478
other 2% −$165
sports 1% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -96.7% -97.0% 0% 0% -89.1%
≤30d 187 +17.1% +5.9% 38% 37% -6.1%
≤90d 196 +15.9% +4.9% 38% 37% -6.5%
all 196 +15.9% +4.9% 38% 37% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 37% -6.5%
10% -5.2% 37% -15.4%
15% -14.3% 36% -23.6%
20% -22.7% 36% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$35 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$780
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses74 / 122
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)196 / 198
History coverage36d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 29¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 45¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$88 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET Jun 06 $252 −$240 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 06 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET Jun 06 $114 −$17 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $42 −$38 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$25 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$52 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $105 +$117 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $53 +$79 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $205 −$198 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $42 −$35 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 05 $82 −$78 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $43 −$39 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $30 +$52 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9PM ET Jun 05 $72 −$68 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 05 $83 −$68 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 05 $32 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 05 $32 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 05 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $33 +$63 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7AM ET Jun 04 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 04 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 04 $47 −$15 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 04 $23 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $14 +$35 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $23 +$15 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$42 +786%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$66 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 04 $11 +$27 +251%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 14¢ $4 1h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 34¢ $29 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 26h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $14 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $15 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $42 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $210 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $97 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $32 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $56 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $15 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $4 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $46 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 410 history records