Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x116d…fbf1 weather 401 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (187 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$33,904 (+11%) realized +$33,768 · open +$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate92%381W / 34L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$793per market
Trades / day187.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,473
7 days−$1,577
14 days+$4,555
30 days+$16,985
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$20,920
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (187 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -0.0% -9.5% 84% 4% -10.4%
≤30d 415 +18.2% +7.0% 92% 7% -4.6%
≤90d 415 +18.2% +7.0% 92% 7% -4.6%
all 415 +18.2% +7.0% 92% 7% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover187.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.0% 7% -4.6%
10% -3.3% 4% -13.7%
15% ← realistic here -12.6% 3% -22.1%
20% -21.2% 3% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$990) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$121 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.13 per $1 lost it wins $5.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$5,372
Realized+$33,768
Unrealized+$136
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses381 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)415 / 401
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$793
Trades / day187.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $1,290 $1,368 +$78 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $917 $917 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $574 $579 +$6 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $377 $386 +$9 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? No 95¢ 97¢ $310 $319 +$9 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $305 $307 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $226 $232 +$6 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $219 $232 +$13 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $203 $204 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $160 $165 +$5 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $160 $162 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $116 $117 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $107 $108 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 11? Jun 17 $8 −$53 -632%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 13? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 15? Jun 17 $195 −$170 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 26? Jun 17 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 13? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 15? Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14? Jun 17 $158 −$158 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 22? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25? Jun 17 $4 +$24 +697%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 25? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 30? Jun 17 $73 +$54 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 19? Jun 17 $398 −$398 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on May 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 13? Jun 17 $270 −$270 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 21? Jun 17 $293 −$293 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 18? Jun 17 $60 −$59 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 15? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 30? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 27? Jun 17 $0 $0 -115%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 9? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 26? Jun 17 $11 +$6 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 23? Jun 17 $14 −$55 -377%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 28? Jun 17 $214 −$634 -297%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9? Jun 17 $11 −$41 -357%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 27? Jun 17 $696 −$696 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on April 9? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11? Jun 17 $9 +$151 +1623%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 10? Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 26? Jun 17 $318 −$299 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 22? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 29? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 10? Jun 17 $575 −$555 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $543 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $317 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $241 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $212 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $266 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $583 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $164 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $207 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $436 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,587 +$16 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $459 +$12 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $115 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $567 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,654 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,407 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $161 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $121 19m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $378 39m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $167 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $917 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,129 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $203 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $190 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $220 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,371.79 · official $5,374.25 (match) · 3500 history records