Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x116c…8f82 weather 66 markets active 4h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate81%50W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$25
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.5% -1.8% 73% 67% -0.0%
≤30d 62 +2.2% -7.5% 81% 79% -9.4%
≤90d 62 +2.2% -7.5% 81% 79% -9.4%
all 62 +2.2% -7.5% 81% 79% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 79% -9.4%
10% -16.4% 23% -18.1%
15% -24.5% 3% -26.0%
20% -31.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses50 / 12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)62 / 66
History coverage25d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? No 85¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? No 86¢ 74¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? No 81¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? No 86¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 09 $9 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $9 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $9 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $11 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 3? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 4? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? Jun 03 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 2? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $16 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? May 31 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 30? May 31 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 30? May 31 $11 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? May 31 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30? May 31 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 29? May 30 $15 +$10 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 31? May 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL No 82¢ $6 38h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 68¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL No 58¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 64¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? SELL No 90¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 87¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY No 82¢ $8 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? BUY No 88¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 8? BUY No 84¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on June 8? BUY No 84¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 8? BUY No 79¢ $9 10d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 8? BUY No 79¢ $9 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? BUY No 90¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.77 · official $12.77 (match) · 121 history records