Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x116a…1104 crypto 54 markets active 3d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-20%) realized −$19 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$5
other 38% −$24
politics 6% −$7
sports 5% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -15.9% -23.9% 39% 39% -18.2%
≤30d 52 -9.6% -18.2% 42% 42% -28.4%
≤90d 52 -9.6% -18.2% 42% 42% -28.4%
all 52 -9.6% -18.2% 42% 42% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 42% -28.4%
10% -26.0% 42% -35.2%
15% -33.2% 38% -41.5%
20% -39.7% 33% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Donyell Malen: 4+ shots Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$4 +172%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +250%
Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots Jun 12 $2 +$4 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$7 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Donyell Malen: 4+ shots BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots BUY Yes 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.46 · official $10.46 (match) · 114 history records