Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
11 0x116a…a2f2 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$113 (+25%) realized +$115 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$106
weather 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +22.1% +10.5% 67% 56% +13.6%
≤30d 9 +22.1% +10.5% 67% 56% +13.6%
≤90d 9 +22.1% +10.5% 67% 56% +13.6%
all 9 +22.1% +10.5% 67% 56% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 56% +13.6%
10% -0.1% 44% +2.8%
15% -9.7% 44% -7.2%
20% -18.6% 44% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$51 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $25 $26 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $94 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$184 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.36 · official $32.36 (match) · 19 history records