Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1169…7118 other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$124 (-0%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$14
politics 38% −$12
sports 7% −$98
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -6.2% -15.1% 5% 2% -9.9%
all 120 -4.5% -13.6% 7% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 3% -9.9%
10% -21.8% 2% -18.6%
15% -29.4% 1% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage116d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $196 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $370 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $191 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $176 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $160 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $389 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $195 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $366 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $183 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? May 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 05 $536 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $157 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 04 $173 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $379 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $188 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $365 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $131 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $372 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $166 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $129 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $365 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $155 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $171 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $329 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $195 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $209 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $173 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $201 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $184 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $25 9d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 10d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 21d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $196 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $196 23d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $152 25d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $152 26d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $160 26d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $160 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $213 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $213 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $209 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $209 29d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $191 29d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $191 30d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $199 30d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $199 31d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 32d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $176 33d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $187 34d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $187 35d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $176 36d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $176 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 366 history records