Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1167…9f9f crypto 716 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$649 (-4%) realized −$201 · open −$448
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate84%596W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days−$128
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$274
politics 16% −$212
sports 13% +$30
other 9% −$242
world 8% +$33
economics 2% −$90
finance 1% +$69
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 57% -6.0%
≤30d 26 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 46% -19.4%
≤90d 227 -8.5% -17.2% 75% 13% -14.6%
all 713 -1.0% -10.5% 84% 28% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 28% -10.9%
10% -19.0% 6% -19.4%
15% -26.9% 3% -27.2%
20% -34.0% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$820
Realized−$201
Unrealized−$448
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses596 / 117
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)713 / 716
History coverage230d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 713 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $1,167 $718 −$449 (-38%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$14 +35%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$16 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$27 -13%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$16 +268%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 −$23 -38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $171 +$20 +12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $172 +$76 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 14 $63 −$60 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $354 −$31 -9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $243 −$127 -52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $30 −$26 -87%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 29 $310 +$15 +5%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $40 +$12 +29%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $201 +$25 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $300 −$3 -1%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 May 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 23 $10 +$4 +36%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10 −$5 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 22 $27 −$25 -94%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $51 +$22 +43%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $100 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $253 +$2 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 −$5 -54%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $110 +$4 +3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $201 +$18 +9%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $100 +$18 +18%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $101 +$43 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 16 $26 +$18 +70%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? May 14 $200 +$3 +2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $50 −$8 -16%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $30 −$9 -31%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $101 +$37 +37%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $101 −$20 -20%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 08 $51 +$5 +10%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $51 −$18 -36%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 May 02 $161 +$57 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $55 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $46 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 62¢ $175 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $6 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 41¢ $38 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $191 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $247 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $819.92 · official $819.92 (match) · 1974 history records