Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1164…73ef crypto 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$144 (-5%) realized −$136 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%74W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$102
other 14% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 60% -13.1%
≤30d 97 -10.1% -18.7% 48% 48% -18.5%
≤90d 155 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 48% -17.7%
all 155 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 48% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 48% -17.7%
10% -26.9% 46% -25.5%
15% -34.0% 41% -32.7%
20% -40.5% 25% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses74 / 81
Open positions7
Markets (closed)155 / 162
History coverage33d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 60¢ 43¢ $42 $30 −$12 (-29%)
HYPE Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Up 72¢ 84¢ $22 $25 +$4 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HYPE Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$12 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$7 +39%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 25? Jun 25 $21 +$8 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$15 +98%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$9 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$5 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$6 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$41 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$10 +48%
HYPE Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$10 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$14 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$13 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$11 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$9 +56%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 03 $11 +$4 +34%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 7AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$7 -73%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -87%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$4 -41%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 6AM ET Jun 03 $14 +$4 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 03 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5AM ET Jun 03 $13 +$11 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4AM ET Jun 03 $11 +$7 +62%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 3AM ET Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$5 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$4 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 03 $21 −$7 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 1AM ET Jun 03 $8 −$8 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 03 $9 −$6 -61%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$9 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 03 $9 +$6 +69%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 02 $9 −$8 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 30 $21 +$4 +16%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 30 $8 −$3 -41%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $7 +$3 +37%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $8 +$10 +121%
HYPE Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET May 30 $9 −$9 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 30 $9 −$8 -83%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 30 $7 +$3 +49%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 11AM ET May 30 $10 −$8 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 22m
HYPE Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $22 29m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 42m
HYPE Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $12 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 2h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 25? SELL Yes 96¢ $29 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $21 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 12h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 25? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $6 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $21 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.46 · official $94.36 (match) · 466 history records