Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:35:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1163…d4ee other 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%25W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$12
sports 24% −$6
other 23% −$14
culture 7% −$5
world 6% +$5
crypto 5% +$1
economics 5% −$2
tech 3% −$3
finance 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 25 -0.3% -9.8% 24% 0% -9.7%
all 151 -0.1% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses25 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage168d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $244 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 15 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $62 −$2 -4%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $61 $0 +1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 07 $241 +$2 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $562 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $85 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $42 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 30 $173 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $173 −$2 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 29 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 29 $184 $0 +0%
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $180 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $173 +$2 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 27 $184 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $180 +$1 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 27 $769 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 25 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $364 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 25 $177 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $175 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 24 $240 $0 -0%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 24 $184 −$3 -2%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 24 $186 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 23 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 22 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 21 $182 −$2 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $401 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 20 $378 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $179 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $378 −$2 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $185 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $60 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $59 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $60 13d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $60 27d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $60 28d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $63 41d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $64 41d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $55 76d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $56 77d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 77d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 77d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 91¢ $60 77d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 95¢ $62 77d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $59 77d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 78d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 78d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $63 78d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $41 78d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $41 78d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 78d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 79d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 79d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 79d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $10 79d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $55 79d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $55 79d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $58 83d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $58 83d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 96¢ $66 84d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 96¢ $41 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.78 · official $59.78 (match) · 617 history records