Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1162…cf58 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-6%) realized +$24 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +46.8% +32.9% 20% 20% +104.5%
≤30d 5 +46.8% +32.9% 20% 20% +104.5%
≤90d 5 +46.8% +32.9% 20% 20% +104.5%
all 5 +46.8% +32.9% 20% 20% +104.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.9% 20% +104.5%
10% +20.1% 20% +84.9%
15% +8.5% 20% +67.1%
20% -2.1% 20% +50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +126% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +126% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$17 · ×11.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $19 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$3 (-35%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$9 (-98%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $30 +$190 +634%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -96%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $30 −$29 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.93 · official $32.93 (match) · 12 history records