Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x115b…2291 crypto 388 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37,551 (-31%) realized −$37,551 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate74%288W / 100L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$350
7 days+$283
14 days+$374
30 days+$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$37,879
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +1.7% -8.0% 89% 54% -6.4%
≤30d 167 +1.3% -8.3% 84% 62% -7.5%
≤90d 296 -4.9% -13.9% 81% 53% -35.5%
all 388 -3.1% -12.4% 74% 51% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 51% -37.4%
10% -20.7% 22% -43.4%
15% -28.4% 14% -48.9%
20% -35.4% 10% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$631 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37,551
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses288 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)388 / 388
History coverage146d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 388 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET Jun 19 $252 +$25 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET Jun 19 $117 +$8 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $252 +$30 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $253 +$44 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $109 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $252 +$23 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $255 +$86 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $252 +$35 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $251 +$15 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $251 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $252 +$31 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $84 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$20 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $187 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $141 +$18 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$35 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$37 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$25 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $202 +$26 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $48 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $161 +$23 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $203 +$50 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $202 −$107 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $202 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $201 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $85 +$4 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $202 +$37 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $252 +$24 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $152 +$29 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $89 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $133 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $168 +$15 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $198 +$18 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $171 +$16 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $118 +$20 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $151 +$17 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $152 +$43 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $183 +$21 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $108 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $132 +$15 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $252 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $253 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $252 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $109 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $252 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $255 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $252 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $251 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $251 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $252 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $84 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $202 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $187 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $141 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $202 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $202 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $202 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $202 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $202 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $202 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $202 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $202 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $48 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $161 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $203 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 922 history records